»Teorija zmage« NATO pakta: Priprave na obrambo ali recept za vojno

Nova »teorija zmage«, ki jo je nedavno predstavil vrhovni poveljnik Nata v Evropi, ameriški general Alexus Grinkevich, bi lahko postala mehanizem, ki bo vojno proti Rusiji naredil neizogibno, opozarja ruski vojaški strokovnjak Dmitrij Kornjev.

Grinkevich je svojo teorijo predstavil 5. oktobra na Varšavskem varnostnem forumu, piše Kornjev za RT International. Njen uradni cilj je pripraviti NATO na morebitni »ruski napad«.

NATO-Kommandeur Alexus Grinkevich stellt „Siegestheorie“ vor Ironischerweise schlug bereits vor über 80 Jahren ein anderer Künstler eine ähnliche Siegestheorie vor – mit verhängnisvollen Folgen.

— Sabine (@Sabinebli) October 13, 2026

Čeprav so podrobnosti strategije zaupne, so javnosti predstavljene štiri glavne smernice:

- Ekonomsko izčrpavanje nasprotnika: Razvoj vojaških in industrijskih zmogljivosti, zaradi katerih bi bilo nadaljevanje vojne za »agresorja« predrago;

- Uničenje infrastrukture: Napadi na sovražnikovo infrastrukturo, poveljniške centre, logistiko in oskrbovalne poti, ne le na vojaške formacije;

- Pripravljeni do leta 2029: Priprave ZDA in evropskih zaveznikov na obrambo pred morebitnimi napadi morajo biti končane do leta 2029;

- Tehnološka superiornost Nata: Doseganje tehnološke superiornosti z uporabo dronov in umetne inteligence.

@NATOJFCBS NATO is a warmongering organisation. A war organisation.

— Wulf (@Wulf16482071) October 19, 2026

Težava takšnih teoretičnih premislekov je, da se njihova narava spremeni, ko postanejo javni, opozarja Kornjev. Tako »obrambni« načrt postane vojni načrt, odvračanje postane načrt napada, datum v koledarju pa prerokba.

Na prvi pogled v Grinkevichevi strategiji ni nič novega.

NATO že leta govori o krepitvi »vzhodnega krila«, zbiranju opreme in zalog, novih vajah, povečanju industrijskih zmogljivosti, integraciji raketnih in PZO sistemov, gradnji logističnih poti in novih scenarijih za odzivanje na krizo. Toda »teorija zmage« ima eno pomembno razliko: časovno omejitev.

@SprinterPress https://t.co/NNIdE6aZit

— LIBERTÀ (@Cin84686) October 13, 2026

Vse to bi moralo biti končano do leta 2029, kar ni le administrativni, ampak tudi psihološki mejnik, poudarja Kornjev.

Nevarno je, ko družba, vojska in država uberejo pot, ki ne temelji na realnosti, temveč na strahu.

Ker je meja med pripravo na obrambo in pripravljenostjo na napad zelo tanka in jo je mogoče zlahka prestopiti.

Last week, NATO Secretary Mark Rutte encouraged NATO members to blame Russia for incidents "when you are even almost sure it is the Russians, attribute it to the Russians…” adding, "We must sustain support for Ukraine, keep the financial and military pipelines heavily funded." Across Europe, while the “Coalition of the Willing” remains committed to defeating Russia, buildings are burning, shops are looted, protests are spreading, and citizens are clashing with baton-wielding police in areas of Belgium, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and especially in France. Hopelessly in debt, European countries are under pressure from the bond markets to slash public spending - ramp up austerity. Meanwhile, these hamstrung governments have no answers to the protestors’ demands, channeling Margaret Thatcher’s “there’s no alternative to austerity.” The fiscal crunch in Europe is primarily a consequence of funding war in #Ukraine, at best, a wasteful allocation of resources, justified by demonizing Russia as a “threat to Europe.” And, of course, Western media do not question how European economies have cut themselves off from affordable, reliable Russian energy, once the lifeblood of their industries. To alleviate social chaos, European leaders must first stop financing the war and, second, negotiate a mutual security accord with Russia as Putin proposed in December 2021. That, in turn, will save European nations from the unsustainable debt driven by nascent militarism and the subsidization of Zelensky’s failing kleptocratic regime."

— Alan Watson (@DietHeartNews) October 24, 2026

Retorika, načrti in časovnice kažejo na leto 2030. Različni zahodni »preroki« že dolgo napovedujejo invazijo »Vzhodne horde« prav v tem letu. NATO trenutno trdi, da Rusija ni grožnja, a do takrat zagotovo bo.

Geopolitika se redko vklaplja v črno-bele kategorije. Tako je »ruska grožnja« hkrati fantomska, pretirana, tudi izkrivljena in - resnična. Ni pomembno, da Rusija realno nima ne človeške sile ne virov za napad na NATO.

Obstoj zunanjega sovražnika je popoln izgovor za vsako politiko, česar se na Zahodu dobro zavedajo.

@scotthortonshow https://t.co/jWS6bqveYi

— War_is_Peace (@WarisPeace3) October 19, 2026

Na papirju je NATO zgolj obrambno zavezništvo, toda vsi načrti, vaje in pozicioniranje so namenjeni opozarjanju potencialnih agresorjev, da bi imel napad previsoko ceno.

Vendar pa bi aktivne obrambne priprave lahko preveč zamikale politike, da sprožijo vojno.

https://t.co/y5FR5efqhC In an interview with the Swiss Zeitfragen im Focus journal on Oct. 21 https://t.co/16Q40LOT7I, Gen. (ret.) Harald Kujat, former Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, warned that the escalated situation between NATO and Russia could mount into an open war between the two. “What is needed now are leaders with foresight in security policy and strategic judgment,” Kujat says, noting that people are being prepared for a war as allegedly “inevitable.” The political situation is highly volatile. Kujat goes on: “The current situation is indeed characterized by a classic escalation dynamic. As a result, a major European war can no longer be ruled out. In fact, the risk has risen steadily. Contributing factors include the European NATO member states’ financial and material commitment—for which there is no alternative—as well as, in particular, their support for the Ukrainian armed forces in operational planning, reconnaissance, and precision strikes. “An open war with Russia must be prevented at all costs. Since Western diplomacy toward Russia has been suspended for years, there is also no suitable crisis management in place. Furthermore, the mechanism agreed upon in 1997 between NATO and Russia—which was intended to enable the joint peaceful resolution of crises and conflicts and prevent a dangerous situation like the one we face today—was suspended by NATO following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. “This silence must be overcome in our own well-understood interest. President Trump has led by example and brought Putin back onto the world stage as a partner in the search for a mutually agreed-upon negotiated peace.” While the situation does pose a threat, Kujat noted, “Russia has so far merely been monitoring it. A greater threat,” he said, “would be if Western countries provided Ukraine with satellite data for attacks on Russia. Given that the Russian Ministry of Defense recently published a list of Western defense companies as targets for Russian attacks, this represents a notable step toward de-escalation.” And while Trump blocked the delivery of deep-strike missiles like the Tomahawk to Ukraine, the British and German governments are committed to enabling Ukraine to launch deep strikes with the Storm Shadow. But Clausewitz already warned that one escalation develops out of the other, dictating its own laws from a certain point on. The European vector is pointing toward open war with Russia. “What is needed now are leaders who possess foresight in security policy and strategic judgment, and who are guided by German interests and the constitutional imperative of peace, in order to find ways to avert the danger of a major European war,” Kujat concludes.

— Helga Zepp-LaRouche (@ZeppLaRouche) October 23, 2026

Kornjev opominja, da lahko ukrepe, ki jih ena država smatra za obrambne, druga dojema kot grožnjo.

To nato sproži spiralo eskalacije, kjer konflikt postane neizogiben.

Če so načrti Nata na papirju obrambni, spremljani z retoriko, češ »Rusija bi lahko napadla čez nekaj let« ali »Evropa mora biti pripravljena (na vojno) do leta 2030«, se spremenijo v samouresničujočo se prerokbo.

They are fighting NATO,USA more the world yet they are winning. The west is losing economically,military and the world order is changing . Russia ends the war . https://t.co/I97y1Ic9bl

— script_sil3ncer (@ScripSil3ncer) October 24, 2026

Z vidika vojaškega načrtovanja je povsem racionalno, da želi NATO imeti do leta 2029 pripravljene vojake, strelivo, logistiko, opremo, poveljstvo, rezerve, zračno obrambo, obveščevalne mreže in industrijske zmogljivosti.

Vprašanje je le, pripravljeni na kaj?

@shahed_1367 The beligerent and cause is NATO and its allies in both cases. One a proxy war. One a genocide. The intelligence and weapons are the same. Many on the soft left are clueless about the NATO war on Russia. Then add in Iran. ZioNazi NATO. https://t.co/xdkrWJLOGN

— EU and NATO are warmongers  (@planetmajority) October 24, 2026

Logika preventivnega delovanja vedno privablja tiste, ki se bojijo, da bi kaj zamudili.

Ne bi bilo prvič, da bi nekdo rekel: »Če bomo čakali, se bo sovražnik okrepil. Izognili se bomo večji vojni, če napademo zdaj!«

Na videz razumno, a so posledice vedno smrt in uničenje.

64 years since the Cuban Missile Crisis Vladimir Putin: “What don’t you understand? Are we putting missiles near the borders of the US? No. It’s the US with their missiles coming to our home. They’re literally on our doorstep. Is this really too much to ask? No more strike systems on our doorstep.” When the shoe was on the other foot, the US took the world to the brink of nuclear Armageddon. In the 21st Century, the US and NATO expect Russia to accept the very conditions that were so unacceptable that the US almost began a nuclear war.

— Afshin Rattansi (@afshinrattansi) October 22, 2026

Po tej sprevrženi logiki se vojna začne, da bi se ji izognili, status quo pa se poruši, da bi se ohranil.

Hkrati nihče ne more zagotoviti, da bo odziv omejen, da se bo eskalacija ustavila na želenem pragu, da nihče ne bo segel po jedrskem orožju, da bodo zavezniki ostali zvesti ali da bo javnost sprejela stroške vojne.

Ruski vojaški strokovnjak opozarja, da obstaja možnost, da bo leta 2029 nekdo v Natu izjavil, da »smo pripravljeni na vse«, in začel vojno, za katero so trdili, da se ji želijo izogniti.