NATO bi se rad bojeval z Rusijo, vendar bo moral peš: Ne bo letalskega goriva

Nova študija opozarja, da bi se sile NATO pakta lahko v prihodnji vojni soočile s pomanjkanjem reaktivnega goriva, saj odmik Evrope od fosilnih goriv in krčenje zmogljivosti rafiniranja nafte ustvarjata resne ranljivosti.

Politico piše, da je študija, ki jo je podprl NATO in je bila objavljena septembra, pokazala, da bi lahko potrebe letalstva zahodnega vojaškega pakta po gorivu v primeru večjega spopada v naslednjem desetletju, v katerem bi sodelovale evropske članice zavezništva z okrepitvami iz Severne Amerike, presegle razpoložljive zaloge.

EXCLUSIVE: NATO forces could face jet fuel shortages in a future war as Europe’s transition away from fossil fuels and shrinking oil refining capacity create dangerous vulnerabilities, a new study warns.  https://t.co/leO1GDPdqg https://t.co/pX78EY3T4E

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) November 13, 2026

Medtem ko se milijarde evrov iz obrambnih proračunov po vsem bloku porabljajo za letala, tanke, rakete in brezpilotna letala, raziskovalci opozarjajo, da bi lahko omejene količine goriva otežile prihodnjo obrambo.

»Z vidika vojaške pripravljenosti je dostop do goriva izjemnega pomena. NATO potrebuje zanesljive oskrbe z energijo za odvračanje in obrambo, včasih pa te potrebe po kolektivni obrambi pomenijo, da mora vojska imeti prednost (pred civilno porabo),« je dejal visoki vojaški uradnik Nata.

Raziskovalci Nata so za pomanjkanje goriva delno okrivili politike razogljičenja Evropske unije in zavezniških držav, ki so ustvarile tržne spodbude za obnovljive vire energije in pospešile zapiranje rafinerij nafte, na katere se vojska zanaša za ustvarjanje zalog. Zato evropske članice Nata po njihovem mnenju nimajo dovolj ne dizelskega in ne letalskega goriva.

WORLD WAR III POSTPONED DUE TO A FUEL SHORTAGE By @BPartisans One detail was missing from Europe’s grand war plan: fuel. A minor detail, certainly, for leaders who have already demonstrated their ability to run on empty. According to Politico, a study by NATO’s Center of Excellence for Energy Security reveals that Europe risks running out of jet fuel in the event of a major war. You have to admit, it would be pretty silly to start World War III only to end up having to take the bus. Since 2009, nearly a quarter of European refineries have closed. Yet jet fuel accounts for up to 80% of military fuel needs in wartime, while European stockpiles cover about 49 days of baseline consumption. In the study’s worst-case scenario, even if all jet fuel from civil aviation were requisitioned, there would be a shortfall of 4.7 million metric tons by 2035 and up to 50 million by 2050. The Russians wouldn’t even need to shoot down our planes anymore: they’d simply have to wait for them to run out of fuel. Let’s summarize this marvel of European strategic genius: we shut down refineries, we sanction an energy giant, we jeopardize our own supplies, and then we mobilize hundreds of billions to buy aircraft that consume precisely what we’re making scarce. At this point, it’s no longer incompetence, it’s an Olympic sport. Macron can always send his Rafales into battle with a five-liter jerry can in the trunk. Kaja Kallas can pedal across the tarmac, and Ursula von der Leyen can announce a twenty-third package of sanctions against the laws of thermodynamics. As for the pilots, they’ll surely be pleased to learn that European energy sovereignty consists of hoping that foreign suppliers will agree to sell them enough fuel to take off. Researchers are now recommending that we preserve refineries, build up reserves, and secure supplies. In short, to do exactly what a military power worthy of the name should have anticipated before acting like a bully. For an army is not measured solely by the number of its aircraft, but by its ability to keep them operational. Logistics cannot be decreed at a European summit over hors d’oeuvres. The Kremlin must be watching with a certain glee as this coalition of geniuses dreams of bringing Russia to its knees while wondering whether it can even fill up its tanks. Brussels wanted a war economy. It risks ending up with a war of fuel conservation instead. Let’s just hope the Russians will agree to a truce while Europe searches for an open gas station. --- Sources: Politico⁠ and original study by the NATO Center of Excellence⁠ https://t.co/lR1JILYJNq https://t.co/MqmJoeT4Uj

— Brainless Partisans  (@BPartisans) November 13, 2026

Podatki organizacije FuelsEurope in Evropske komisije kažejo, da je od leta 2009 zaprta približno četrtina rafinerij nafte na celini, kar je zmanjšalo regionalno zmogljivost za več milijonov sodčkov na dan.

V Evropi je ostalo približno 70 aktivnih obratov, ki lahko oskrbujejo domači trg z reaktivnim gorivom.

Nova študija je objavljena v času, ko si Bruselj prizadeva povečati rafinerijske zmogljivosti bloka, ki so se v zadnjih 20 letih zmanjšale za 10 odstotkov, kar ima posledice tudi za obrambo, kot je prejšnji mesec v javnem nagovoru opozoril evropski komisar za energijo Dan Jørgensen.

 NATO-Linked Study Warns Europe Could Face Critical Jet-Fuel Shortages in a Major War With Russia Europe has just 49 days of jet-fuel stock cover, compared with 120 days for petroleum products overall.  A quarter of European refineries have closed since 2009.  In a severe Article 5 war scenario involving US reinforcements, researchers project a 4.7-million-tonne jet-fuel shortage by 2035.  For Romania and NATO's eastern flank, securing fuel supplies could become as important as acquiring new aircraft and weapons.  https://t.co/0qW2GzN3ss #NATO #Romania #EnergySecurity

— Adriana Popescu (@AdrianaPop490) November 13, 2026

»V razumno predpostavljenem najslabšem možnem scenariju od sredine tridesetih let tega stoletja nobena omejitev civilne porabe ne more ponovno uravnotežiti sistema brez dodatnih posegov,« so dejali raziskovalci.

Vendar pa študija kaže, da niti odvzem vseh razpoložljivih količin letalskega goriva, namenjenega civilnemu sektorju v naslednjem desetletju, ne bi bila dovolj.

Evropa ima ta trenutek zaloge letalskega goriva, ki zadostujejo za zgolj 49 dni, medtem ko zaloge naftnih derivatov na splošno zadoščajo za 120 dni.

Net Zero Putting NATO At Risk Of Jet-Fuel Shortage Research blames green policies for closure of oil refineries used by military for stockpiling. https://t.co/Q9X04qFy0A via @ccdeditor https://t.co/zuTBFNlQ7p

— Climate Dispatch (@ccdeditor) November 13, 2026

»Od leta 2035 naprej bi celo ob popolnem prevzemu civilnih zalog primanjkovalo 4,7 milijona ton reaktivnega goriva,« so zapisali raziskovalci in dodali, da bi se primanjkljaj lahko do leta 2050 povečal na kar 50 milijonov ton.

Vendar pa raziskovalci menijo, da se je krizi mogoče izogniti in da mora NATO nujno uvesti spremembe.

Priporočajo, da zavezniške vlade ohranijo zmogljivosti rafinerij, povečajo strateške rezerve goriva, pospešijo proizvodnjo alternativnih reaktivnih goriv, ​​diverzificirajo uvoz in povečajo učinkovitost porabe goriva v vojski.

NATO secretary general Rutte meeting with zelensky Rutte assured PAC 2 &PAC 3 Missiles to Ukraine  No end to Ukraine Russia war https://t.co/3NrFzE8Ycc

— E Chidambaram (@JaiRam92739628) November 13, 2026

Zaskrbljenost je izrazil tudi generalni sekretar Nata Mark Rutte, ki je ob robu Generalne skupščine Združenih narodov v New Yorku priznal, da je Zahod zaskrbljen zaradi pomanjkanja rafinerij v primeru vojne z Rusijo.